20-25-Year taux fixe · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 20-25-Year taux fixe in 法国 rises from 3.45% today to 4.01% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
数据截至 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
The French norm is a taux fixe running for the whole term, typically 20 to 25 years, so a French borrower who signs today has locked their rate for the life of the loan. Rates are constrained by the taux d'usure, a legal ceiling set quarterly at the previous quarter's average rate plus one third. Because the ceiling lags the market, French origination volumes visibly seize up when market rates rise faster than the cap, which is exactly what happened through 2022 and 2023.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in 法国, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| 月份 | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | 预计 20-25-Year taux fixe | 利差 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.49% | +1.02pp |
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.52% | +1.05pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.55% | 3.56% | +1.01pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.68% | 3.62% | +0.94pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.68% | 3.67% | +0.98pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.75% | 3.72% | +0.97pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.86% | 3.78% | +0.93pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.86% | 3.83% | +0.98pp |
| 2027-05 | 2.92% | 3.88% | +0.97pp |
| 2027-06 | 2.96% | 3.93% | +0.97pp |
| 2027-07 | 2.98% | 3.98% | +1.00pp |
| 2027-08 | 2.98% | 4.01% | +1.03pp |
| 国家 | Typical Product | 房贷利率 | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 斯洛伐克 | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +2.05pp |
| 爱沙尼亚 | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.95pp |
| 拉脱维亚 | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.75pp |
| 希腊 | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| 立陶宛 | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| 荷兰 | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| 塞浦路斯 | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| 意大利 | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| 爱尔兰 | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| 比利时 | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.45pp |
| 德国 | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.40pp |
| 奥地利 | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| 斯洛文尼亚 | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| 葡萄牙 | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| 克罗地亚 | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| 卢森堡 | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| 法国 | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +1.20pp |
| 西班牙 | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| 芬兰 | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| 马耳他 | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +1.05pp |